Discussion

Key variables have make-or-break consequences for your organization. Commonly predicted and monitored key variables include include economic indicators such as GNP, interest rates, and the rate of inflation.

Identify the variables that have been crucial to your organization in the past and those that will be important to it in the future. (Broaden your viewpoint by scanning future-oriented periodicals, such as The Futurist, in addition to those periodicals that you generally read.) Include variables with a low probability of occurrence but high impact; all those with high probabilities regardless of their impact; events that are likely to happen or have an impact in the next few years.

Limit key variables to no more than four or five by using the following guidelines:
· Delete variables having a low probability of occurrence.
· Delete variables having a low potential impact.
· Delete disaster events.
· Remove dependent variables. Separate dependent from independent variables. Check for interdependence. Is the value of one variable based upon the value of another?